Dr. Loren Scott: Signs pointing to a stronger north Louisiana economy

Dr. Loren Scott brought his traveling “Louisiana Economic Forecast” presentation to a full house at the Port of Caddo-Bossier recently, and most of what he had to report was positive news.

Scott, economist and president and owner of Loren C. Scott and Associates, is paid to produce an outlook that encompasses various of the state’s regions, including the Shreveport-Bossier MSA which includes Caddo, Bossier, Desoto and Webster parishes.

Oil and Gas

Scott believes that the price of natural gas will be increasing from $2.20 per MMBtu to the $3.10, $3.20 range due to what he believes will be a doubling of the demand from liquified natural gas exporters.  Louisiana’s abundance of low-cost natural gas will, he believes, encourage foreign companies that have access only to higher priced products, to consider locating here. He says $34 billion in related projects are underway around the state now.

Lingering COVID concerns (still)

The local MSA lost 22,300 jobs during the pandemic, sending local unemployment up to 12.4%. “I will tell you, I think you are already recovered,” said Scott, even though official numbers show local recovery at 95%. “I believe you will see that number go up when the unemployment revision comes out in March 2025,” he said. Meanwhile, he said, Lake Charles is just 50% recovered, while New Orleans stands at 77%.

On whether a north Louisiana lithium discovery would be important

“My intuition is this, and I haven't really looked at it enough to say for certain, but I don't think it's going to be real big” “The used EV market doesn't seem to be doing very well, and part of the reason for that is, if your battery goes out and one of these suckers, you may be talking about 16 grand to replace it. I don't know what all's going on there, but it seems to me like the companies that are that are building stuff that goes into batteries are starting to see a slowdown. And also, I think you see lithium mines really all across the country that may be easier and more productive.”

On Governor Landry’s proposed sweeping tax changes

Scott said that he is unfamiliar with all that the governor is proposing, but called the corporate franchise tax “a bad tax” and believes doing away with it would be good for north Louisiana and the state as a whole.

On the possible ending of movie and film tax credits

“I've actually done economic impact studies of the film tax credit, and it is a net loss to the state. The state budget loses over $300 million a year with the film tax credit. That's after you count the extra money they gain from the new activity. Many states, not just us, have done away with this. They just found it doesn't deliver the way we hoped it would.”

Scott says he is unsure whether Troubled Muse studios, which he says is planning to invest $25 over five years, or the proposed 50 Cent G-Unit studio are willing to move forward in a state without the credits.